It should be noted that unemployment “stabilized” in November and if the trend continues, we should see the rebound starting to take place.
Lawrence H. Summers, President Obama’s top economic advisor, predicted on Sunday that by the spring the ranks of working Americans will start to grow once again.
via Summers Predicts Job Growth by Spring - NYTimes.com.
Jobs should continue to be lost, but at fewer rates, and at some point, the “leaner” firms will have to refill the spots that they lost due to the shrinking economy. When that happens, as simple logic tells us, job growth will hit the “zero point” and be positive thereafter.
It may not be much consolation for those who have lost their jobs, or those that have not been able to find work after graduation or being unemployed, but the economic situation has forced forward thinking firms to focus on sustained competitive advantage and ensuring costs are in line with their offerings. Peter Drucker would have recommended firms focus on innovation and investment in the future within these “uncertain times,” and those that have, will be poised for growth and ultimately the creation of jobs.
I would expect, as might seem like common sense, to see larger more innovative firms already starting to hire, and more staid industry leaders to follow suit when economic indicators are more favorable.
And this should come as welcome news to many.
Unemployment for 16- to 19-year-olds is at its highest rate since 1992 — at 22.7 percent in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is causing some teenagers to rethink their notion of work and to embrace entrepreneurship.
“This is a generation raised to believe they can do anything, and the first to grow up with entrepreneurial celebrities like Steve Jobs of Apple and Larry Page and Sergey Brin of Google,” said Donna Fenn, who interviewed 150 young entrepreneurs for her forthcoming book, “Upstarts: How Gen Y Entrepreneurs Are Rocking the World of Business and 8 Ways You Can Profit From Their Success.”
[via The New York Times]
by Erik on July 3, 2009
in Alternative Energy, Asia, Business Logic, Economy, Green Tech, IBM, Jobs, Markets, New Tech, Obama, Recession, Technology, Unemployment, Weekly Roundup
For Modest Earners, Relief Repaying Student Loans – Repaying a student loan could soon be a little less painful. Starting this week, anyone with a federal student loan can apply for a program, run by the Department of Education, that caps monthly payments based on income, and forgives remaining balances after 25 years. Those choosing to work in public service could have their loans forgiven after just 10 years.
New Grads May Have Leg Up On Older Job Seekers – Recent college graduates are finding out that an economic downturn is not the best time to be searching for work. But they do have a leg up on older job hunters: It’s a lot easier for a 22-year-old — unburdened by mortgage and kids — to go to where the work is.
IBM Reinvents the 401(k) – Staffers were nervous when Big Blue replaced its pension plan with a souped-up 401(k). Now, the plan could be the new gold standard.
U.S. Job Losses Rise and Unemployment Reaches 9.5% – The American economy lost 467,000 more jobs in June, and the unemployment rate edged up to 9.5 percent in a sobering indication that the longest recession since the 1930s had yet to release its hold. “The numbers are indicative of a continued, very severe recession,” said Stuart G. Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh. “There’s nothing in here to show that the economy and the market are pulling out of the grip of recession.”
A Day With 400 Tweets Starts With Simplicity – A Comcast Social Media Associate has plenty of advice to give on using Twitter and other social networking sites, as do other always-on pros and amateurs. Their tips will help you minimize your time and effort while maximizing your social bliss.
Q&A: Rising Unemployment Clouds Outlook – The increase in the unemployment rate to a 26-year high of 9.5 percent doesn’t bode well for a smooth transition to economic recovery. Economists expect unemployment to continue to rise into 2010, and possibly longer. Here, a look at what some leading economists say lies ahead as the fall season approaches, when retailers typically expect a boost from back-to-school shopping.
Green Power Takes Root in the Chinese Desert – As the United States takes its first steps toward mandating that power companies generate more electricity from renewable sources, China already has a similar requirement and is investing billions to remake itself into a green energy superpower.
Economist: Stimulus Appears To Be Working – More jobs were lost last month than expected, but the Obama administration’s economic stimulus package promises to create 600,000 jobs by the end of the summer. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, says that without the stimulus, the numbers would be worse.
Obama Disappointed By Jobs Numbers – President Obama said Thursday he is “deeply concerned” about unemployment. The remarks to The Associated Press came after the Labor Department said U.S. businesses shed 467,000 jobs in June and that the unemployment rate increased to 9.5 percent.
Madoff Likely Won’t Be Serving Time In ‘Club Fed’ – Anyone who thinks convicted swindler Bernard Madoff will serve easy time in a “Club Fed” minimum-security prison should think again. He is unlikely to land in a cushy cellblock, and he will need to watch his back, consultants and former inmates say.
Really interesting article from Deloitte’s Lang Davison about the “problem” with traditional business metrics. Relates back to the Shift Index I spoke about earlier.
During a steep recession, managers obsess over short-term performance goals such as cost cutting, sales, and market share growth. Meanwhile, economists chart data like GDP growth, unemployment levels, and balance-of-trade shifts to gauge the health of the overall business environment. The problem is, focusing only on traditional metrics often masks long-term forces of change that undercut normal sources of economic value. “Normal” may in fact be a thing of the past: Even when the economy heats up again, companies’ returns will remain under pressure.
via Harvard Business Review
